Loss Reserve Forecasting and Stress Testing Analytics - Vice President

The role is within the Loss / Loan Loss Reserve Forecasting and Stress Testing team, responsible for forecasting net credit losses and loan loss reserves for a $150B+ portfolio and partnering with Finance to assess performance under various macroeconomic and business scenarios. The position supports Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR/DFAST) activities for retail portfolios, with a primary focus on North America Credit Cards. The successful candidate is a strategic professional with deep expertise in credit loss forecasting and stress testing. They stay current with industry developments, apply advanced analytical skills to business challenges, and contribute to the team's strategic direction. As a recognized subject matter expert, the individual provides guidance on complex analytical and operational matters, influences stakeholders across functions, and delivers high-impact results. Strong communication, collaboration, quantitative, and problem-solving skills are essential. Key responsibilities include analyzing the drivers of credit losses and reserves, assessing emerging trends, developing accurate forecasts, evaluating model outputs for reasonableness, reconciling financial data from multiple sources, and effectively communicating findings to management and key stakeholders. The role also requires maintaining strong governance and documentation standards while improving forecasting, reporting, and data processes through automation and process enhancements.

Independently execute quarterly loss and loan loss reserve forecasting and stress testing processes (CCAR, QMMF, Recovery Plan) for one or more retail portfolios, with a primary focus on North America Cards. Manage associated governance activities, including Manager Control Assessments (MCA), End User Computing (EUC), and Activity Risk Control Monitoring and Assessment Units. Partner across portfolios and functions to support forecasting and stress testing analytics. Review and challenge existing models and outputs, identifying opportunities for enhancement based on portfolio performance and macroeconomic trends. Understand reserve calculations, P&L components, and the impact of CECL on CCAR results, including the interdependencies between these processes. Collaborate with Risk Modeling, Portfolio Forecasting, New Account Forecasting, Data Reporting, and Finance teams to support financial planning, CCAR/DFAST analyses, and integration of credit risk and PPNR results. Perform complex risk analytics to quantify the impact of credit, business, and regulatory policies on portfolio performance and incorporate findings into stress testing frameworks. Conduct econometric analyses to assess and explain the effects of changing macroeconomic conditions on portfolio performance, losses, and delinquency trends. Identify modeling opportunities that deliver measurable business value. Provide guidance and mentorship to junior team members as needed. Partner with Risk and Finance teams to improve data sourcing, extraction, definition, and utilization processes. Drive continuous improvement in business-as-usual processes through simplification and automation using tools such as VBA and SAS. Execute and maintain information controls, including version management and centralized reporting, to ensure accuracy, transparency, and compliance with business objectives.

10+ years work experience in financial services, business analytics or management consulting. Understanding of risk management. Knowledge of credit card industry and key regulatory activities (CCAR) is a plus. Experience in CCAR / DFAST/Stress Testing is preferred Strong understanding and hands-on experience with econometric and empirical forecasting models. Experience in data science / machine learning is preferred with ability to handle large datasets Experience in using analytical packages like SAS, datacube/Essbase, MS Office (Excel, Powerpoint) Vision and ability to