Manager, Physical Risk Measurement (5278)

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Depth & Scope The Climate Risk Measurement team is seeking an experienced quantitative risk professional to support the development and implementation of TD’s physical climate risk measurement capabilities. The incumbent will develop and execute methodologies for measuring the financial impacts of physical climate risks, including flood, wildfire, hurricane, extreme heat, and other climate-related hazards. The role will focus on translating location-level hazard and damage estimates into portfolio and credit risk metrics that support risk identification, scenario analysis, stress testing, capital assessment, and regulatory reporting. The successful candidate will integrate and evaluate external catastrophe and climate risk models, develop internal analytical methodologies, and work with credit risk, model validation, technology, data, ESG, and business teams to embed physical risk insights into TD’s risk management processes. The ideal candidate will combine advanced quantitative modelling expertise, geospatial and data analytics capabilities, knowledge of credit risk and stress testing, and practical experience delivering complex initiatives within a regulated financial institution. Key Accountabilities Develop physical risk methodologies for relevant acute and chronic hazards, including flood, wildfire, hurricane, and extreme heat. Conduct portfolio-level physical risk analyses by combining hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and financial data across applicable climate scenarios and time horizons. Develop quantitative approaches to translate physical risk impacts into financial and credit risk measures, including collateral value, portfolio loss, probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected credit loss (ECL). Integrate and evaluate third-party climate and catastrophe models, including supporting data ingestion, model benchmarking, sensitivity analysis, and assessment of assumptions and limitations. Develop scalable analytical workflows and data pipelines using tools such as Databricks, Python, R, SAS, and Power BI. Produce clear, decision-useful analysis and reporting for risk management, business, senior management, and regulatory stakeholders. Prepare and maintain model documentation, methodology papers, controls, and supporting evidence in accordance with model risk management, audit, and regulatory requirements. Support independent model validation by responding to challenges, completing sensitivity testing, and addressing validation findings, while preserving validation independence. Contribute to climate risk regulatory reporting and remediation, including activities related to OSFI Guideline B-15 and other applicable requirements. Coordinate delivery across credit risk, model validation, ESG, technology, data, and business teams, including managing dependencies, timelines, and assigned deliverables. Provide technical guidance to analysts and partners and contribute to the continued development of TD’s physical risk measurement capabilities. Required Qualifications, Education & Experience Master’s degree or PhD in a relevant quantitative